Snakebit

The Royals are currently in the midst of what is so far an 8-game losing streak.  After an impressive start in Anaheim taking two of three from the Angels, they managed one win against the A’s and have been swept by the Indians and Tigers.

Losing streaks are not new to this team or to Royals fans.  In fact the feeling, deep down, is one of extreme familiarity, almost like the feeling of being back home after an exotic vacation.  It’s a return to our comfort zone, but also a realization that life isn’t as glamorous or exciting as it seemed.

What makes this particular stretch so painful is the fact that fans largely bought into the hype being generated by the Royals' marketing department that this year was the year we would see the ‘new’ Royals.  “Our Time”.  We’ve heard a steady stream of comments from players, coaches, team officials and sports experts telling us that this was the year we could finally climb out of our fallout shelters and bask in the bright sunshine of competitive baseball.

Could 2012 truly be the year this happens?  Sure.  If this team can right the ship and play up to its’ potential this early deficit can be overcome.  Good teams have done it many times.  The key question is whether the Royals, as currently constructed, are good enough to do it.

The issue really comes down to what is wrong with the team and can it be fixed quickly?  There is no single answer to that question.  We’ve seen games lost due to starting pitching, bullpen meltdowns, bad base running, questionable managerial decisions, defensive lapses and lack of offensive power.  We’ve seen strong offensive performances negated by pitching debacles.  We’ve seen great pitching performances met with offensive shutdown.  The Royals have been unable to get good pitching and hitting performances aligned into the same nine innings.

Perhaps some of the problems could be attributed to a mass case of sophomore slump. With so many young players on this team, there was bound to be an adjustment period.  A few have had slow starts and are beginning to show progress.  Others appear to be regressing to the mean. Key injuries certainly have not helped.

In the end, the common thread of all these afflictions is lack of consistency.  In this young season the Royals frankly have no idea what or who they can rely on.  There have been a few bright spots… Alcides Escobar, Chris Getz and both catchers have exceeded early offensive expectations.  Mike Moustakas is coming around.  Billy Butler is being, well, Billy Butler.  Bruce Chen and Danny Duffy have been very solid.  Other than those few bright spots the only consistency for the team has been inconsistency. Luke Hochevar looked strong in two starts, with one horrible inning in between.   We’ve seen game changing meltdowns from Aaron Crow, Jonathan Broxton and Greg Holland, all of which are inconsistent with their typical performance.  Jeff Francoeur's performance so far as been more similar to 2009 than to 2011.  Alex Gordon has looked lost at the plate and Eric Hosmer has tried to send every ball to St. Louis, although both have shown signs that they may be overcoming their early struggles. All three seem to have forgotten everything they learned last year with Kevin Seitzer.

No, it's not yet the time to push the panic button or throw away all hope for the 2012 Royals.  It is, however, the time for this team to search within itself and try to find some consistency to build upon.  We won’t know what the catalyst is until it happens.  If it happens.  I believe there is too much talent on this team to not find a way out of this mess.  I think the players and coaches believe the same thing. The core young players on this squad have won together at every level they've played at.  Their will to win is there.  The true measure of the character of this team will be if they can turn that will into performance.

The Eleventh Inning podcast for January 16, 2012

Video podcast discussing the Kansas City Royals' offseason roster moves as they relate to the starting rotation.  Published January 16, 2012.

Poker Lessons with Dayton Moore (or knowing when to go all-in)

Early in the offseason, Royals general manager Dayton Moore rightly identified the starting rotation as the area of primary need.  He also said he was not going to make a big splash through free agency and indicated that he wasn’t inclined to make a major trade either.

As the hot stove season winds down, it is becoming evident that GMDM will be true to his word and not make any blockbuster deals this winter.  The trade of Melky Cabrera for Jonathan Sanchez, while interesting, is hardly a franchise altering move.  The Royals essentially traded Cabrera for a replacement level player for Jeff Francis, with better peripherals and a slightly higher upside potential.

As of this writing the two biggest free agents still available are Edwin Jackson and Roy Oswalt.  Bringing Oswalt in on a one-year deal could make some sense, but such a move is not without risk given his age and back issues.  Jackson is purportedly seeking a five year deal.  Though it sounds appealing to sign a ‘name’ pitcher to a long term deal, the prudent move is to pass.

There are several reasons why Moore’s reticence to jump into the pitching market in a big way makes sense.  First, the 2012 free agent market for starting pitchers was pretty thin by normal standards.  The selection was limited and demand outstripped supply.  The 2013 class is significantly deeper, with some 38 starters eligible for free agency, although a third of those have some form of club option.

Moore mentioned trades as a possibility to improve the Royals rotation, and pulled the trigger to obtain Sanchez.  Aiming higher would be a big challenge this year.  The club is not ready to part with the young players who will become the nucleus of the team (Hosmer, Moustakas, Gordon, Perez to name a few).  Beyond this core there are few established players that would command a great deal of trade value.  Moving Soria would be trading low, due to his uncharacteristically average season.  Butler would be a possibility but the challenges that limit his role to DH also limit his value to most other teams. 

Trading pitching prospects (Montgomery, Odorizzi for example) would make no sense, and the position prospects are largely not yet ready for the big show.  Additionally the restrictions of the new CBA will have an impact on the ability to sign high ceiling draft choices, making the current top prospects even more valuable.

The Royals have a number of internal options to evaluate for starting opportunities, and the moves this offseason give the team flexibility.  Adding Jonathan Broxton allows Aaron Crow to get a long look in spring training as a starter, and if he’s not quite ready perhaps head back to Omaha to work out the kinks.  Jose Mijares as a lefty specialist allows Tim Collins to be used in a more traditional middle inning role, allowing Everett Teaford to be looked at in a starting role as well.

In addition to the group we’ve seen in Kansas City, Mike Montgomery will certainly get an opportunity to showcase his capabilities, and will likely have the opportunity to try to pitch his way onto the major league roster.  Luis Mendoza will probably have the same opportunity.

When you consider the locks as starters are Hochevar, Chen and Sanchez, the Royals possess a good amount of depth to fill out the rotation.  Having Paulino, Duffy, Crow, Teaford, Mendoza and Montgomery to choose from is not a horrible situation.  In addition, Vin Mazzaro and Sean O’Sullivan are still around trying to earn another opportunity.  The team will have a rotation full of pitchers who would be 3-4-5 starters on a contending team, but with improved offensive and defensive support, and a little luck, the Royals may field an average starting rotation.

2012 will be a transformational year for the Royals.  If things go according to plan, they should make the leap from perennial losers to a young, confident and competitive team.  If at the end of 2012 the biggest gap is still a front line starter, the time will be right to go all-in and try to land an ace.  Until then, checking their bet is probably the best move.

Forty-Eight

Forty-eight.  The number of days until pitchers and catchers report to Surprise to begin the annual ritual that is Spring Training.  Forty-eight days until we can finally see, hear and feel the 2012  baseball season creaking to life.

The offseason has been interesting for Royals fans, if not overly exciting.  By far the biggest focus has been on the pitching staff.  Dayton Moore and his team made several moves that while not providing immediate solutions will certainly open up options for filling out the rotation.

The moves began in October with the firing of Bob McClure as pitching coach and the eventual hiring of Dave Eiland.  I have no idea if Eiland will be the key to success for all of the young arms in the Royals stable, but I think it had become increasingly clear that McClure had more on his plate than he could handle.  With the possible exception of Bruce Chen, nearly every member of the staff needs some work in pitch development, delivery or consistency.

It became clear early in the offseason that Jeff Francis would likely be the odd man out.  While his numbers weren’t stellar, he was a serviceable starter who had the bad luck to draw the short straw on run support more often than not. 

The trade of Melky Cabrera returned Jonathan Sanchez and provided some hope that maybe Dayton and Co. were really committed to picking up the missing pieces for the 2012 rotation.  Coming off an ankle injury which sidelined him for most of the 2^nd half of the season, Sanchez should be good to go for 2012.  If he can cut back issuing free passes and possibly post numbers similar to his 2010 campaign (or even the first half of 2011) he should be a nice addition to the rotation.

In other moves, the Royals inked a two year agreement with Bruce Chen which should provide some additional rotation stability.  Aaron Laffey made a stealth trip on and off the 40 man roster, and the team picked up reliever Jonathan Broxton, also coming off an injury season.  Recently the team also signed Jose Mijares for some bullpen depth.

The Broxton and Mijares signings are interesting in their potential impact on the rotation.  Broxton fills a need for a late innings guy that could free up Aaron Crow to move back to a starting role and into the rotation.  Mijares, as a LOOGY, allows Tim Collins to be used as for longer outings, possibly opening up an opportunity for Everett Teaford to be considered as a starter as well. 

Projecting the 2012 rotation is a bit of a gamble at this point.  It is probably safe to assume that Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen and Jonathan Sanchez will open the season as starters.  Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy may have an inside edge on the remaining spots but should face some competition from Crow, Teaford, Luiz Mendoza and possibly even Vin Mazzaro or Sean O’Sullivan.  With a good spring, Mike Montgomery could also make a case for breaking with the big club.

The free agent and trade markets seem to have largely worked themselves out with the Royals on the sidelines. GMDM could still put together a deal for a Roy Oswalt or an Edwin Jackson, but the likelihood of such a move dwindles by the day.  Moore has stated that he won’t make any moves that block the young guys from advancing, so absent any more signings he has held true to that statement.

First Eleventh Inning Podcast!

Check out the first installment of the Eleventh Inning podcast!  I hope to make this a weekly activity and feature news, information and commentary about the Royals.

Welcome to the newest Royals blog!

Welcome!

Welcome to the inaugural edition of The Eleventh Inning, the latest addition to the blogosphere dedicated to major league baseball and the Kansas City Royals.

Kansas City is blessed with a good number of blogs covering the Royals from a variety of perspectives.  Several focus on statistics and sabermetrics.  Others approach the game from the team’s point of view, or from the players and coaches perspective.

The Eleventh Inning is a baseball blog written from the general fan’s perspective.  We’ll focus on roster moves, trades, player development, team and individual performance and baseball in general.  We may look at statistics from time to time, but we’ll leave the advanced metrics to the experts.

Why another blog?

Because, really, why not?  Everyone has a different view and perspective on baseball.  Having as many outlets for discussion as possible is the best way to promote those perspectives.

About your host…

I am a lifelong resident of the Kansas City area, and have been a Royals fan since 1974.  I remember the glory years of the late ‘70s and the championship seasons of 1980 and 1985.  I’ve suffered through the last 25 years of Kansas City baseball with everyone else.  I regularly attend 20 to 30 games per year and follow most of the rest through television or radio. 

I’m neither a sports expert nor a baseball professional.  I work in management for a large national corporation that has nothing to do with baseball.  I am also a diehard Royals supporter and want nothing more than to enjoy watching the young, exciting talent that make up today’s Royals team evolve into a championship caliber organization.

I have no special credentials or expertise that qualify me to publish a sports blog.  Only my own opinions.  I hope to share those on a regular basis, and I hope you will too. 

Weekly video podcasts…

I hope to publish a companion video podcast each week to provide a recap of major Royals activities and performance.   I’m developing skills as a commercial video producer and editor, and hopefully producing a weekly podcast will be a fun and unique contribution to the site.

Feel free to contact me with suggestions and questions.  Comments to the blog are welcome, email me at lastroyalsfan@gmail.com or on twitter at @lastroyalsfan