Early in the offseason, Royals general manager Dayton Moore rightly identified the starting rotation as the area of primary need. He also said he was not going to make a big splash through free agency and indicated that he wasn’t inclined to make a major trade either.
As the hot stove season winds down, it is becoming evident that GMDM will be true to his word and not make any blockbuster deals this winter. The trade of Melky Cabrera for Jonathan Sanchez, while interesting, is hardly a franchise altering move. The Royals essentially traded Cabrera for a replacement level player for Jeff Francis, with better peripherals and a slightly higher upside potential.
As of this writing the two biggest free agents still available are Edwin Jackson and Roy Oswalt. Bringing Oswalt in on a one-year deal could make some sense, but such a move is not without risk given his age and back issues. Jackson is purportedly seeking a five year deal. Though it sounds appealing to sign a ‘name’ pitcher to a long term deal, the prudent move is to pass.
There are several reasons why Moore’s reticence to jump into the pitching market in a big way makes sense. First, the 2012 free agent market for starting pitchers was pretty thin by normal standards. The selection was limited and demand outstripped supply. The 2013 class is significantly deeper, with some 38 starters eligible for free agency, although a third of those have some form of club option.
Moore mentioned trades as a possibility to improve the Royals rotation, and pulled the trigger to obtain Sanchez. Aiming higher would be a big challenge this year. The club is not ready to part with the young players who will become the nucleus of the team (Hosmer, Moustakas, Gordon, Perez to name a few). Beyond this core there are few established players that would command a great deal of trade value. Moving Soria would be trading low, due to his uncharacteristically average season. Butler would be a possibility but the challenges that limit his role to DH also limit his value to most other teams.
Trading pitching prospects (Montgomery, Odorizzi for example) would make no sense, and the position prospects are largely not yet ready for the big show. Additionally the restrictions of the new CBA will have an impact on the ability to sign high ceiling draft choices, making the current top prospects even more valuable.
The Royals have a number of internal options to evaluate for starting opportunities, and the moves this offseason give the team flexibility. Adding Jonathan Broxton allows Aaron Crow to get a long look in spring training as a starter, and if he’s not quite ready perhaps head back to Omaha to work out the kinks. Jose Mijares as a lefty specialist allows Tim Collins to be used in a more traditional middle inning role, allowing Everett Teaford to be looked at in a starting role as well.
In addition to the group we’ve seen in Kansas City, Mike Montgomery will certainly get an opportunity to showcase his capabilities, and will likely have the opportunity to try to pitch his way onto the major league roster. Luis Mendoza will probably have the same opportunity.
When you consider the locks as starters are Hochevar, Chen and Sanchez, the Royals possess a good amount of depth to fill out the rotation. Having Paulino, Duffy, Crow, Teaford, Mendoza and Montgomery to choose from is not a horrible situation. In addition, Vin Mazzaro and Sean O’Sullivan are still around trying to earn another opportunity. The team will have a rotation full of pitchers who would be 3-4-5 starters on a contending team, but with improved offensive and defensive support, and a little luck, the Royals may field an average starting rotation.
2012 will be a transformational year for the Royals. If things go according to plan, they should make the leap from perennial losers to a young, confident and competitive team. If at the end of 2012 the biggest gap is still a front line starter, the time will be right to go all-in and try to land an ace. Until then, checking their bet is probably the best move.
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